The Morning After: Israel’s Hangover and The Signed Iran Deal
I’ve long considered the Iran Nuke Deal a done deal, that it was merely a question of time before names were signed on dotted lines and the deal is concluded. This is one of the reasons why Plato’s has not been posting zio fear-based propaganda articles on the nuke deal – and there’s been a steady stream of them daily and for endless months now. So here today, at the eleventh hour before the signing, I’d like to look at Israel’s options on the morning after.
But first, let’s look at Saudi Arabia’s options. Okay. Erm… well… I’m looking… erm…. still looking… erm… nope – nothing – none. No options. Rehashed reports that claim that Saudi Arabia has contracted Russia to build 16 nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia are as delusional as the Saudi claims of victories in Syria or Yemen. Yes, it’s true that Russia is set to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss bilateral cooperation in the field of nuclear energy between Russia and Saudi Arabia, but that is a far cry from actually building and firing off 16 nuclear reactors. World powers, including Russia itself, all know that terroristic Wahabi ideology is the very actual heart and pulse of Saudi Arabia, and considering the endemic problems that the globe as a whole is having with Wahabi terrorism right now, there’s not a single world power that would agree to, or even consider such a foolish and destructive proposition.
I’ve read in zio trash rags that Saudi Arabia and Israel will together go to war against Iran. Really? Let’s quickly look at that feasibility. Let’s imagine how two proven cowards with big guns go to war: they stand there in the battlefield saying to each other: ‘you go first’, ‘no, you go first’, ‘no I think you should go first’ – and this goes on ad infinitum till the sun goes down. We all know that if Israel actually dared to strike Iran, it would have done so long ago, with or without second party help. And if mighty Israel can’t do it alone, for fear of a devastating Iranian smack-back, then for certain, Saudi Arabia won’t do it alone, even with Israel in tow. Both countries are too cowardly to do it together and too cowardly to do it alone. Both countries were hoping that the USA will do it for them, but that wet dream is never going to happen in reality either as Obama’s legacy is resting on the success of the Iran Nuke Deal, and American mega corporations are most eager to exploit the opportunities of getting mega business contracts with every single one of Iran’s many dormant industries – deals that are worth trillions of dollars that would be otherwise grabbed by Indian, Chinese, Russian, South American and European conglomerates. So, no, I do not believe that a direct war with Iran is an option for Saudi Arabia on the morning after the deal is signed with Iran. The best that Saudi Arabia can do is to find some face-saving diplomacy with Iran once its vengeance upon the suffering Yemenis has been exhausted and it is forced to sign a (cold) peace deal with the Houthis at the UN. No option for Saudi Arabia but to accept the unstoppable rise of Iran. That is it. Full stop.
And Israel? What are its options on the morning after?
1- Draw the actual Iranian army into a war in Yemen, or in Lebanon, in Bahrain, in Syria, or in Iraq (where Iran is already fighting ISIL shoulder-to-shoulder with the USA)? Well no, Israel won’t be doing that because, actually, Saudi Arabia AND Israel have both already tried to draw Iran directly into a third party hot-spot zone in all the above mentioned countries and they have failed. That empty train has long ago left the station.
2- Could Israel perhaps try to draw the Iranian Air Force into Lebanon airspace by striking the hardest ever at south Lebanon, Hezbollah’s main stronghold and headquarters? No, that won’t be happening either. By now, Israel suspects that Hezbollah’s arsenal also includes sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles and systems that are perfectly capable of downing Israeli F-15’s, F-16’s and F-35’s. Hezbollah is also a formidable enemy that the IDF has already lost to in several historic battles. Israeli strategists work with this reality in mind – they know perfectly well that Hezbollah, right there at their northern doorstep, is perfectly capable of causing great destruction and damage to Israel’s infrastructure – and unless an Israeli victory is assured before the commencement of an Israeli assault on Hezbollah, no Israeli military man will take on this highly dangerous and foreboding risk. Moreover, the strength of Hezbollah is not just military, Hezbollah is also the most powerful non-state actor in the region, therefore it can act and asymmetrically maneuver on a whim and in a second without any bureaucratic or governmental constraints that the IDF would be bound by. This is to Hezbollah’s military theater advantage – history tells us time and time again that traditional armies always lose in asymmetrical warfare. Striking at Hezbollah and Lebanon to punish Iran is indeed not a winning strategy and the Israeli military honchos already know this. Therefore starting a war with Lebanon to weaken Iran is not an option either.
3- Could Israel put Al-Nusra on enhanced steroids and unleash them across the Levant to draw the Syrian army into battle traps in an attempt to lure Iranian platoons into the Golan to save the Syrian Army? Well, Israel already has Al-Nusra on high dosages of steroids but there are not enough of them to counter the larger head count of the Syrian army – therefore the Syrian army will never need the help of Iranian platoons when facing Al-Nusra – they already have Hezbollah right there to help them with any tight military spots they may encounter – read the ongoing and successful joint operations of the Syrian Army and Hezbollah against ISIS in Qalamoun. And for the same reasons Israel won’t be directly attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, it cannot attack the Syrian Army directly as the Syrian army too is perfectly capable of turning Tel Aviv into a smoking ruin regardless of the hits it takes. Attacking Syria to punish Iran is also not an option.
4- Will an enraged and frustrated Israel take it all out on Gaza in another war, again? Even that itself is unlikely. The geopolitical and economic conditions do not currently favor an Israel attack. Despite the insistence of Israel that it is a flourishing start-up nation, the Shekel is currently dying. The ICC has its eyeball on Israeli war crimes. BDS is holding an economic gun, held by the majority of world citizenry, right at Israel’s head. Striking at Gaza as a temper tantrum and to flex its military muscles won’t do Iran one single bit of damage; on the contrary, it will hasten the de-legitimization and demise of the Apartheid Zionist state of Israel.
Yes, readers, Israel is in a serious strategic quandary when it comes to Iran’s growing power and fast-rising regional superpowerdom. Out of ideas and doable options, the morning after the deal is signed, Israel will wake into a hazy hangover that will last for some time. It will not know what to do because it does not have a plan A at hand. It does not have a plan B, nor does it have a plan C. It has exhausted all attempts at weakening Iran and it has failed.
The only man in the middle east who could have effectively confronted Iran’s widening sphere of influence was Saddam Hussein. But Israel made sure to kill him and his nation with him. If Israeli generals could revive Saddam’s corpse today, bring him back from the dead, I have no doubt that they would be doing so with frantic gusto.
But that too, as we all know, is not an option.
However, the instrument of political assassination is what Israel is known to wield in the shadows. And strike thus I think it will if it can access a worthy target – for vengeance sakes but not for its ability to change the course of history that the Iran Nuke Deal will undoubtedly produce.