The Turkish Military Rejects Erdogan’s War Plans: “False Flag” Needed? – Moon of Alabama
The war on Syria would not be possible without the huge involvement of Turkey on the side of the islamists fighting the Syrian government. Despite some success by Kurdish guerrillas along the border with Turkey against the Islamic State there are still open routes that allow the islamists to cross and which are their most important supply lines.
The Kurdish success against the Islamic State and other Turkey supported islamist groups, created with U.S. air support, is seen as a strategic threat to Turkey. The Kurds already have a semi-autonomous state in north Iraq. They now could possibly create one in Syria along the Syrian Turkish border. They may later want to integrate Kurdish areas in Turkey.
“I am addressing the whole world: We will never allow a state to be formed in northern Syria, south of our border,” Erdoğan said at a Ramadan event organized by Turkish Red Crescent in Istanbul late June 26.
“We will keep up with our struggle whatever the cost is. They are trying to complete an operation to change the demographics of the region. We will not condone,” he said.
The economic situation in Turkey is getting worse. Erdogan and his AKP party lost in the recent elections but want to avoid a coalition government. Erdogan isn’t finished. He will call for new elections but will first create a situation that will diminish the vote for the mostly pro-Kurdish party HDP and thereby recoup their parliamentary votes for his AKP.
All three issues: the Turkish proxy attack on Syria through islamists forces, countering the threat of Kurdish consolidation in Syria and diminishing support for the pro-Kurdish party in Turkey could possibly be furthered in Erdogan’s favor if he could create a wider conflict with the Kurds.
Last weeks Islamic State raid on Kobane, allegedly from Turkey, killed over 200 people, mostly civilians. This was a much bigger terrorist attack than the ones in Tunisia, Kuwait and France which were hyped in “western” media. But with U.S. support on the side of the Kurds the islamist Turkish proxy forces have trouble to defeat the Kurds.
Erdogan’s solution to his problems is to send the Turkish military. Its task would be to keep the Kurds in Syria from progressing further and to keep the logistic lines for the Islamic State to Turkey open. The army fighting against Kurds in Syria could also help to diminish non-Kurdish support for the pro-Kurdish HDP in Turkey.
But the Turkish army does not want to fight Erdogan’s war:
Turkey’s government wants more active military action to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the regime, Kurdish and jihadist forces in Syrian territory, but the military is reluctant to do so, playing for time as the country heads for a new coalition government, official sources told the Hürriyet Daily News.
One source explained the “need” as to “prevent more clashes between the ISIL and the Kurdish forces led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), prevent the PYD from taking full control over the Turkish-Syrian border and create a safe zone against a new wave of refugees on Syrian territory, no longer in Turkey.”
Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel has delayed the government directive with justifications of international law and politics and the uncertainty of reactions from the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, as well as from its supporters Russia and Iran, together with the United States.
The government has been conducting dialogue since then to convince the army on its plans.
The army is blocking Erdogan’s move to send at least one division into Syria. It wants its orders in writing and from a new, yet to be formed, government. The Turkish attack will therefore – should happen at all – not be launched before fall.
With this move the army leadership, surely in contact with the U.S., takes one of three of Erdogan’s reasons for sending the military off the table:
Twitter whistleblower Fuat Avni wrote in the early hours of Saturday that President Erdoğan is concerned about what the anonymous account alleged to be secret coalition efforts between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and that a Syrian war appears to be the only way to create chaos that will lead to increased support for the AK Party.
As the army does not want to follow Erdogan’s plan he may to have look for other ways to create an emergency situation. Could some “terrorist attacks” on Turkish land from Syria be used to press the army into immediate action? The Turkish intelligence service M.I.T. is in Erdogan’s hand. It does not shy away from dirty “false flag” business. Could it be used to create the crisis Erdogan needs? Could the neoliberalcons in Washington DC help him?
via Moon of Alabama.