Now that the golden dust of the Iran deal has somewhat settled and literally a deluge of analysis on the deal in multiple languages has been published and consumed by the global interested masses, all that’s left now is to watch how the powers of the biggest losers in this deal, Saudi Arabia and Israel, will be slowly imploding before our eyes.
To describe the reactions of both these loser countries as that of a hysteric is to put it mildly. They lost the supreme and highly prized geo-political Super Bowl; they lost American Idol and Arab Idol and the coveted Olympics all on the same night. Much chest beating was reported and their wild and haunting wails of crushing agony were heard even by NASA’s radars all the way out on Pluto’s surface this week.
But when their tears have dried up and the nasal sobbing has ceased, will the rogue counties of Israel and KSA be able to restore the old status quo to their advantage again?
Well… in a million years and a day they can, as they say. But for now, due to the historic an immovable new reality that has just dawned not only on the Middle East but also upon America and Europe as well, there will be no replay of the old status quo in the Middle East.
There will be no Greater Israel, after all.
There will be no absolute control of the Arabian Gulf region by the elite members of the House of Saud either – including control of KSA’s internal political arena.
When history collides with a hysteric, one of them is bound to be trampled to dust. And we all know that history is a continuum force. Therefore if Israel has no desire to be relegated to amorphous, powdery matter, Israel must now face that it has but a single sober choice left at its disposal: make equitable peace with the Palestinians – and the surrounding Arab and Moslem world.
This means Israel must give up land it illegally acquired by force of arms.
This means burning to dust all its colonialist maps and paper plans for a Greater Israel.
This means flinging into a dark and deep abyss any future war files and clandestine death operations.
This means fully disassociating itself from all its terrorist allies and activities in the Middle East.
Redefining its state character and mission statement – is what it comes down to. It is what is ultimately necessary for Israel to do in order to avoid colliding head on with the unforgiving and lethal pummel of history.
It means Israel needs to save itself and a couple of its generations much precious time by immediately stopping the hysteria. It means embracing the present and unpleasant death state so as to swiftly rebirth itself into a peaceful state with defined borders; gingerly and freely trading away with its direct neighbors and with the world. There is no reason why the Israeli people would not be able to easily forge themselves a reputation as fierce traders instead of fierce warmongers and war criminals.
It means Israel must give up its hate of other Abrahamic religions. It should be sufficient and normal to be amused and bewildered by the ‘other’ – but the hate must go.
It means compensating equitable reparations to Palestinians it has killed, injured or robbed. It means giving up the delusion of permanent and eternal victimhood.
Instead of getting drunk on grief at their own funeral, Israeli leaders would do better than good to fully embrace the ominous, present reality; they would do themselves big favors now to immediately start gathering at roundtables: brainstorming, confabbing and think-tanking on how best to re-invent themselves into a different, yet still powerful and prosperous country.
But can Israel do all the above? Some Israeli citizens can, but the current zeitgeist is strongly against them. Most certainly, the present government of Netanyahu will take no such enlightened action. And regrettably, there are no current Israeli leaders on the horizon who have the spine or the political capital to begin steering their public and their country’s ship to future safety.
There is no Jewish Mandela prepared to take a sharp and sudden 180% by denouncing the old methods of violence as failed and no longer desirable. There is no political messiah within view who would officially and categorically declare the Greater Israel Project as utterly obsolete.
So in the meantime, in the hope of turning the tables again, we will see a frantic attempt by Israel to ignite new wars in the region: read Kurdistan, Egypt, Tunisia and Algiers – as well as rabidly feed existing ones: read Syria, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan and Libya. But war is a gamble and Israel is now infamously too rattled to play pokerfaced convincingly. Apart from its nukes, Israel’s many foes can now match its armament in deadliness – it has been checkmated on this military end; and its illegal nukes are as useful to the Greater Israel project now as a full-length fur coat on a sunny day.
Between the global trade pressures of BDS, the graspable UN recognition of Palestine, the many walls of foe-missiles aimed at it and the legitimization of Iran’s regional hegemonic powers, Israel must now use its vast and global lobbying powers to overhaul its political direction and image.
It can no longer thrive or survive as a colonial Zionist state with democracy worn only as quick-fading lipstick. But it may have a chance of longevity and a stable future as a simple and plain trading democracy.
On the other hand, unlike its partner in crime and terrorism, Saudi Arabia has no such global lobbying powers. But it too has a way out of the lethal Iran crisis. Let us be mindful here that the total collapse of the House of Saud is considered by the world powers, including Russia and China, as a ‘world security issue’, therefore there will be no such scenario in the making any time soon – there will be no traditional coup d’état in Saudi Arabia, at least not before the last Saudi oil well has dried out.
The only way out of this consuming regional and global decline is for the House of Saud to reinvent itself too. To accept defeat and begin politically transitioning from an absolute religious monarchy and into a democratic and constitutional monarchy, a-la Great Britain – but with a more culturally and socially conservative bent.
This must begin to happen inside of a decade otherwise Saudi’s regional power and sphere of influence will keep hemorrhaging due to its poison connection to Islamic terrorism, as well as the fast-rising economic and technological gait of Iran that will surely dwarf Saudi Arabia in no time. Lest a new systematic and political incarnation is birthed and implemented, Saudi Arabia will also face the greater risk of the spread of internal and bloody unrest inside its kingdom, with the possible eruption of civil war and division of Saudi territory.
But like Israel, Saudi Arabia will find it initially hard to swallow the Iranian pill – and desperate for a success of sorts, any kind of victory to show the world and its minions its potency and powers, it will attempt to turn the tables to its advantage through entrenching itself in more warfare against Yemen – a war that all experts agree is unwinnable. Wreaking havoc from the skies does not a victory make – this lesson has yet to be grasped by the House of Saud.
It will also turn up its involvements in the Syria and Iraq wars in the hope of some geo-strategic victory there that it can claim for itself, after a series of embarrassing and costly failures in the Levant. This victory that the Saudis are chasing in Syria and Iraq is akin to the Holy Grail. One is compelled to seek it for the promise of divine power, but the vessel is illusive and its location is utterly unknown to mortals.
Having been umbilically and solely dependent on American nurturing and protection for numerous decades, both Israel and KSA must now endeavor to become independent of America before America pivots its focus and energy east towards Russia and the China Sea. Post Iran nuke deal, Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are faced with dire situations where the solution is available, but it is by far more complex and dangerous than the problem itself.
To avoid colliding and getting pulverized by history, they will need to survive not just their current and respective geo-strategic crisis, but also they will need to survive the existential dangers of the only long-term solution available to them: a fundamental constitutional overhaul.