Now that Russian military operations against ISIS in Syria are well underway, with much success already scored and final victory is but certain, Russia launches forth into an impeccably timed diplomatic offensive that seeks to establish a foundation for a new world order for the 21st century.
As current events fast unfold, we are observing Putin’s masterful use of both hard power and soft power to achieve this highly complex and dangerous restructuring.
In the short term, slowly but surely, major countries in the Middle East and Europe are now aligning themselves with Russia’s effective military campaign against the malicious wave of Takfiri terrorism sweeping the Middle East; a terrorism that has already brought hundreds of thousands of undesirable refugees to European shores, somewhat destabilizing the demographic palette of these countries as well as adding the burdensome expense of indefinitely hosting unstoppable masses of refugees.
In the long term, it also appears that major European countries have also aligned themselves with Putin’s vision of multiple superpowers reigning over separate sections of the world, with the view of creating a solidified balance of power between nations instead of a monopolized dictatorship of a single superpower ruling over the entire globe.
In other words, Putin has fully exposed the dire failures of American Neocon foreign policies. He has highlighted glaring failures that Europe itself can now see for itself: ruinous strategies that are currently burning a hole in its own pocket. To all concerned, it is by now more than apparent that American Neoconism applied in the Middle East has achieved naught but costly war after violent war – wars that Neocons have failed to even secure a clear-cut victory in, despite their overwhelming military advantage. In the eyes of most world leaders, Neoconism now stands in stark, abysmal failure – both militarily and morally. After over a decade of incessant warring, there is not a single victory that American Neoconism can claim. This profound and grand failure on the world stage has consequences. Indeed, no sound world leader is currently enthusiastically declaring alignment with America’s project for the Middle East. Not anymore. And this trend will continue in the foreseeable future till American policy makers overhaul their Middle East policies, ie: remove Neocon ideology from their strategic configurations and pursue a more considerate and profitable manifesto that enhances America’s allies and not wound them.
As it stands right now, American foreign policy is overpopulated by neocon ideologues from both sides of the isle and transformation of foreign policy is not even whispered about in the halls of power. This conversation is not even on the radar and no imminent changes are about to occur.
Due to numerous failed foreign adventures and due to Neocon policy entrenchments, a fissure in American global hegemony is now visible and President Putin is using this to his advantage.
Thus far, Putin has convinced Germany’s Merkel as well the UK’s new Labor Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, that their countries and the world at large are better off abandoning the slowly sinking ship that is American Neocon foreign policy. Other Western European countries like France are showing signs of following in the footsteps of Germany and the UK: elbowing and sidestepping the USA, as evidenced by the French attempts at passing a resolution at the UN to protect Palestinian rights in Al-Aqsa, as well as France writing its own proposition for a Two State Solution, a diplomatic realm normally and staunchly dominated by the USA and the USA alone.
It would seem to be the case that the reckless foreign policies of American Neoconism (with bipartisan support in Washington D.C.) have left literally all of America’s allies in Europe and the Middle East utterly exposed to security dangers, thereby causing what you might call a global deflation of American influence and distrust of American strategies. On the international stage, America’s reputation as an incompetent giant now precedes it; whereas Russia’s standing in the world as a responsible power has been recently enhanced through its strategic military maneuvers in the Levant and its successful war against ISIS.
Middle Eastern countries that now subscribe to Putin’s strategies are Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, the Sultanate of Oman, Yemen, Kuwait, and the mass of Arab African countries. Turkey’s alignment is currently suspended till after its national elections in two weeks time – an election that most analysts predict Erdogan will be losing to his anti-war opposition, possibly by a landslide. And even if Erdogan wins and proves the analysts wrong, Putin has already put Erdogan on notice not to interfere with Russian military activities in the Levant. Willingly or not, Turkey too has fallen under the Russian sphere of influence.
Arab countries that are against Russia’s military activities in Syria are headed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two countries that have doubled-up their resupplies to the Takfiri armies in Iraq and Syria since the Russian entry into the battlefields – an effort that is looking more and more futile in Syria in the face of the combined capable forces of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, Iran and the Russian Naval and Air Forces. The smaller Sheikdoms of UAE and Bahrain, as per usual, support all Saudi security policies in the region, regardless of content. Curiously, despite Saudi Arabia’s aggressive maneuvers against Russia on the Syrian battlefields, Putin has extended his hand to the House of Saud, proposing that it is in Saudi security interest to now align with Russia as American policies and actions have proved unreliable and have failed it, adding that where there’s failure on such a large scale, there’s imminent danger – and this danger to Saudi Arabia, only Russian power can redress.
Putin is also pushing for the Saudis and other Arab Syria-naysayers to accept a political solution in Damascus, a solution that begins with new Syrian elections to take place in the imminent future. This election would cement the legitimacy of the winner and disarm the argument of ‘regime change’ in Syria regardless of whoever wins. Timing-wise, this is a most opportune and nimble political chess move by the Russian President.
Putin is also proposing to step into the Yemen crisis and politically resolve it shoulder-to-shoulder with the Saudi King, thus offering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a face-saving solution to its unwinnable war in the Yemen. No other major world country is offering Saudi Arabia a dignified exit from Yemen. Currently, the Saudi king is too enraged by Russia turning the tables on him in Syria, but this anger is as consequential as a child’s pout. There is actually nothing that Saudi Arabia can do to turn the Syria situation to its advantage again and sooner than later, as its coffers get fast laid to waste in the Yemen quagmire, it will have to publicly accept Putin’s proposed political solutions in both Yemen and in Syria.
Of course, one does not forget to count Israel in Putin’s fast-paced maneuvers. From the first moment Russian fighter jets took to the skies of Syria, Israel instantly became denigrated to a secondary player position in the region – and there’s nothing presently that Israel (or its Western allies) can do to change this immovable reality. Full stop. Israel’s all important security needs have overnight become equal to Syria’s security needs, even Lebanon’s and Jordan’s. Putin’s fundamental interest is in securing the landmass of the Levant and not primarily in securing Israeli power. This is all too clear. He is playing the Israel card with utter delicate care, aiming to block Israeli interference in his Syria plans but also stepping forward in such a diplomatic manner so as to not alienate them. He knows that alienating the Israelis will bring him many unnecessary political headaches. For Putin’s grand multiple power restructuring strategies to work, he must effectively use diplomacy to create the path of least resistance from all countries concerned. And under the banner of fighting Takfiri terrorism, he can quieten down embittered countries while the foundations for a new world order are being laid.
With all the major side players accounted for, American reaction here begs updating. Clearly, Washington policy makers are fuming hostilities at Putin’s military activities as well as his diplomatic campaign. They can now see the stooped backs of Europe and the Middle East nervously traipsing east towards Russia’s domain – and they are cussing and gasping in D.C. at the humiliation of the sight. They’re interpreting Putin’s successful wooing as the most serious challenge to their global hegemony since the collapse of the Soviet Union back in 1991 – almost two and a half decades ago. They would like to go to immediate war with Russia but the reality is that President Obama is not about to go to war with a major power like Russia in his last fifteen months of office. The economic reality is also that the USA simply cannot monetarily afford such a war. Reality too is that the majority of American voters are more concerned with their bread and butter than they are with American loss of global hegemony. A sizable chunk of America’s population couldn’t care less about the middle east and would prefer their government invested in creating more jobs instead of more overseas wars. The Neocons selling another war to the majority of American people is but a practical impossibility right now.
Reality too is that Putin is not alone. He may have devised the Levant-Europe power and influence projection plan, but he is actually working on behalf of the assembly of the BRICS nations. The combined manpower, economic and military forces of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are a new beast for America to reckon with. A colossal beast that’s mightier than the old Soviet Union. And it matters naught that the USA may have more nukes than all the BRICS combined – it’s enough that BRICS power is large enough and perfectly capable of destroying America if the American military aggressively turned on any one of them. This is the new MAD, the new ‘mutually assured destruction’ equation.
But quintessentially, BRICS are by far more interested in furthering their economic powers than in starting any wars, especially with America. This is because their manifesto and partnership is devoid of Neoconism ideology and ideologues. Their main focus is on increasing their economic power and accordingly gaining their rightful global influence and standing in the world through economics and not through war. Their powers are increasing on a daily basis and they are now asking, diplomatically, for their piece of the world pie. They see it as their hard-earned right. They see it as an essential ingredient for future world prosperity and peace.
The question is, will American Neocons accept a world-sharing partnership with BRICS? The wise would say yes. With their powers diminishing on the world stage, Neocons will eventually have to accept it. But they will do it kicking and screaming blue murder with every power shift that will be hence forthcoming.
And when will this new world order with new spheres of influence materialize and become evident? When will this redistribution of global power occur? The answer to this question is rolling in the fog of the future. In the meantime, prepare yourselves for a new cold war, a cold war that will slowly freeze out American Neoconism from the world stage.
As Putin currently maneuvers to lay the foundations of a new world order for the 21st century, whole continents are breathing sighs of relief. Neoconism, history will record, had cost America its crown.