Now that Russian military operations against ISIS in Syria are well underway, with much success already scored and final victory is but certain, Russia launches forth into an impeccably timed diplomatic offensive that seeks to establish a foundation for a new world order for the 21st century.
As current events fast unfold, we are observing Putin’s masterful use of both hard power and soft power to achieve this highly complex and dangerous restructuring.
In the short term, slowly but surely, major countries in the Middle East and Europe are now aligning themselves with Russia’s effective military campaign against the malicious wave of Takfiri terrorism sweeping the Middle East; a terrorism that has already brought hundreds of thousands of undesirable refugees to European shores, somewhat destabilizing the demographic palette of these countries as well as adding the burdensome expense of indefinitely hosting unstoppable masses of refugees.
In the long term, it also appears that major European countries have also aligned themselves with Putin’s vision of multiple superpowers reigning over separate sections of the world, with the view of creating a solidified balance of power between nations instead of a monopolized dictatorship of a single superpower ruling over the entire globe.
In other words, Putin has fully exposed the dire failures of American Neocon foreign policies. He has highlighted glaring failures that Europe itself can now see for itself: ruinous strategies that are currently burning a hole in its own pocket. To all concerned, it is by now more than apparent that American Neoconism applied in the Middle East has achieved naught but costly war after violent war – wars that Neocons have failed to even secure a clear-cut victory in, despite their overwhelming military advantage. In the eyes of most world leaders, Neoconism now stands in stark, abysmal failure – both militarily and morally. After over a decade of incessant warring, there is not a single victory that American Neoconism can claim. This profound and grand failure on the world stage has consequences. Indeed, no sound world leader is currently enthusiastically declaring alignment with America’s project for the Middle East. Not anymore. And this trend will continue in the foreseeable future till American policy makers overhaul their Middle East policies, ie: remove Neocon ideology from their strategic configurations and pursue a more considerate and profitable manifesto that enhances America’s allies and not wound them.
As it stands right now, American foreign policy is overpopulated by neocon ideologues from both sides of the isle and transformation of foreign policy is not even whispered about in the halls of power. This conversation is not even on the radar and no imminent changes are about to occur.
Due to numerous failed foreign adventures and due to Neocon policy entrenchments, a fissure in American global hegemony is now visible and President Putin is using this to his advantage.
Thus far, Putin has convinced Germany’s Merkel as well the UK’s new Labor Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, that their countries and the world at large are better off abandoning the slowly sinking ship that is American Neocon foreign policy. Other Western European countries like France are showing signs of following in the footsteps of Germany and the UK: elbowing and sidestepping the USA, as evidenced by the French attempts at passing a resolution at the UN to protect Palestinian rights in Al-Aqsa, as well as France writing its own proposition for a Two State Solution, a diplomatic realm normally and staunchly dominated by the USA and the USA alone.
It would seem to be the case that the reckless foreign policies of American Neoconism (with bipartisan support in Washington D.C.) have left literally all of America’s allies in Europe and the Middle East utterly exposed to security dangers, thereby causing what you might call a global deflation of American influence and distrust of American strategies. On the international stage, America’s reputation as an incompetent giant now precedes it; whereas Russia’s standing in the world as a responsible power has been recently enhanced through its strategic military maneuvers in the Levant and its successful war against ISIS.
Middle Eastern countries that now subscribe to Putin’s strategies are Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, the Sultanate of Oman, Yemen, Kuwait, and the mass of Arab African countries. Turkey’s alignment is currently suspended till after its national elections in two weeks time – an election that most analysts predict Erdogan will be losing to his anti-war opposition, possibly by a landslide. And even if Erdogan wins and proves the analysts wrong, Putin has already put Erdogan on notice not to interfere with Russian military activities in the Levant. Willingly or not, Turkey too has fallen under the Russian sphere of influence.
Arab countries that are against Russia’s military activities in Syria are headed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two countries that have doubled-up their resupplies to the Takfiri armies in Iraq and Syria since the Russian entry into the battlefields – an effort that is looking more and more futile in Syria in the face of the combined capable forces of the Syrian army, Hezbollah, Iran and the Russian Naval and Air Forces. The smaller Sheikdoms of UAE and Bahrain, as per usual, support all Saudi security policies in the region, regardless of content. Curiously, despite Saudi Arabia’s aggressive maneuvers against Russia on the Syrian battlefields, Putin has extended his hand to the House of Saud, proposing that it is in Saudi security interest to now align with Russia as American policies and actions have proved unreliable and have failed it, adding that where there’s failure on such a large scale, there’s imminent danger – and this danger to Saudi Arabia, only Russian power can redress.
Putin is also pushing for the Saudis and other Arab Syria-naysayers to accept a political solution in Damascus, a solution that begins with new Syrian elections to take place in the imminent future. This election would cement the legitimacy of the winner and disarm the argument of ‘regime change’ in Syria regardless of whoever wins. Timing-wise, this is a most opportune and nimble political chess move by the Russian President.
Putin is also proposing to step into the Yemen crisis and politically resolve it shoulder-to-shoulder with the Saudi King, thus offering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a face-saving solution to its unwinnable war in the Yemen. No other major world country is offering Saudi Arabia a dignified exit from Yemen. Currently, the Saudi king is too enraged by Russia turning the tables on him in Syria, but this anger is as consequential as a child’s pout. There is actually nothing that Saudi Arabia can do to turn the Syria situation to its advantage again and sooner than later, as its coffers get fast laid to waste in the Yemen quagmire, it will have to publicly accept Putin’s proposed political solutions in both Yemen and in Syria.
Of course, one does not forget to count Israel in Putin’s fast-paced maneuvers. From the first moment Russian fighter jets took to the skies of Syria, Israel instantly became denigrated to a secondary player position in the region – and there’s nothing presently that Israel (or its Western allies) can do to change this immovable reality. Full stop. Israel’s all important security needs have overnight become equal to Syria’s security needs, even Lebanon’s and Jordan’s. Putin’s fundamental interest is in securing the landmass of the Levant and not primarily in securing Israeli power. This is all too clear. He is playing the Israel card with utter delicate care, aiming to block Israeli interference in his Syria plans but also stepping forward in such a diplomatic manner so as to not alienate them. He knows that alienating the Israelis will bring him many unnecessary political headaches. For Putin’s grand multiple power restructuring strategies to work, he must effectively use diplomacy to create the path of least resistance from all countries concerned. And under the banner of fighting Takfiri terrorism, he can quieten down embittered countries while the foundations for a new world order are being laid.
With all the major side players accounted for, American reaction here begs updating. Clearly, Washington policy makers are fuming hostilities at Putin’s military activities as well as his diplomatic campaign. They can now see the stooped backs of Europe and the Middle East nervously traipsing east towards Russia’s domain – and they are cussing and gasping in D.C. at the humiliation of the sight. They’re interpreting Putin’s successful wooing as the most serious challenge to their global hegemony since the collapse of the Soviet Union back in 1991 – almost two and a half decades ago. They would like to go to immediate war with Russia but the reality is that President Obama is not about to go to war with a major power like Russia in his last fifteen months of office. The economic reality is also that the USA simply cannot monetarily afford such a war. Reality too is that the majority of American voters are more concerned with their bread and butter than they are with American loss of global hegemony. A sizable chunk of America’s population couldn’t care less about the middle east and would prefer their government invested in creating more jobs instead of more overseas wars. The Neocons selling another war to the majority of American people is but a practical impossibility right now.
Reality too is that Putin is not alone. He may have devised the Levant-Europe power and influence projection plan, but he is actually working on behalf of the assembly of the BRICS nations. The combined manpower, economic and military forces of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are a new beast for America to reckon with. A colossal beast that’s mightier than the old Soviet Union. And it matters naught that the USA may have more nukes than all the BRICS combined – it’s enough that BRICS power is large enough and perfectly capable of destroying America if the American military aggressively turned on any one of them. This is the new MAD, the new ‘mutually assured destruction’ equation.
But quintessentially, BRICS are by far more interested in furthering their economic powers than in starting any wars, especially with America. This is because their manifesto and partnership is devoid of Neoconism ideology and ideologues. Their main focus is on increasing their economic power and accordingly gaining their rightful global influence and standing in the world through economics and not through war. Their powers are increasing on a daily basis and they are now asking, diplomatically, for their piece of the world pie. They see it as their hard-earned right. They see it as an essential ingredient for future world prosperity and peace.
The question is, will American Neocons accept a world-sharing partnership with BRICS? The wise would say yes. With their powers diminishing on the world stage, Neocons will eventually have to accept it. But they will do it kicking and screaming blue murder with every power shift that will be hence forthcoming.
And when will this new world order with new spheres of influence materialize and become evident? When will this redistribution of global power occur? The answer to this question is rolling in the fog of the future. In the meantime, prepare yourselves for a new cold war, a cold war that will slowly freeze out American Neoconism from the world stage.
As Putin currently maneuvers to lay the foundations of a new world order for the 21st century, whole continents are breathing sighs of relief. Neoconism, history will record, had cost America its crown.
The neocon and neolib wings of the Israel lobby have succeeded in driving most of Israel’s neighbors — and even much of Europe — into the hands of Russia. They have severely damaged America’s credibility on the world stage — and all because they were obsessed with paving the way for building Greater Israel.
Nothing the neocons and neolibs have said over the last half century has made any sense — and all their political calculations, which were based on messianic magical thinking, were gibberish. The PNAC’s grand “project” has turned out to be a strategic disaster.
Future historians will be curious to explain why both Republican and Democratic leaders failed to stand up for rational American interests against neocon and neolib quackery.
By the way, I suspect that many foreign policy realists within the American national security community have welcomed Putin’s intervention in Syria — they may have even encouraged it under the table. Perhaps the United States will now have an opportunity to get back on a more sane foreign policy track — one focused on its true best interests and values.
A curious feature of contemporary American politics: Hillary Clinton, a Democrat who takes her marching orders from Zionist hawks like Haim Saban, is still firmly in the neocon camp, while Donald Trump, a Republican and traditional foreign policy realist, seems to be eager to kick the neocons to the curb.
It is easy to predict that the mainstream media will do everything in its power to promote Hillary Clinton to the presidency, while pulling out all the stops to destroy Trump.
Valuable observations, Sean. Thank you.
Added note: one hopes that the Secret Service will be diligent in protecting Trump from those zealots who are determined to keep the PNAC agenda in play by any means, fair or foul.
As time rushes towards our presidential elections, daggers are drawn everywhere.
Re: Trump
“A sizable chunk of America’s population couldn’t care less about the middle east and would prefer their government invested in creating more jobs instead of more overseas wars. The Neocons selling another war to the majority of American people is but a practical impossibility right now.”
This is why Trump is getting the numbers he’s getting.
I said it long ago–America First–is what the majority of the public wants and wants to hear.
Donald Trump, despite his numerous ties to the Israel and Jewish lobbies, is clearly an America Firster — and he is driving Israel Firsters nuts — especially liberal Zionists, who are big fans of multiculturalism and massive illegal immigration everywhere in the world except in Israel.
but — the multiple interviews between Putin and Netanyahu, and the kid-glove treatment Putin is extending to Israel wrt Russian activities in Syria, suggest that Putin is either “keeping his friends close and enemies closer,” or is overtly allying with Israel even as Israel strengthens its relations with Saudi Arabia and ever-so-slightly distances from USA. Putin tried to be friendly with USA, was rebuffed, is now pursuing another path.
Russia-Israel alliance makes sense for Putin: He is aware of the highly Russified character of Israeli population, and also of the benefits of having a relationship with Jews and their acknowledged entrepreneurial skills vs USA blundering and bankrupt bully on the decline status.
It doesn’t make sense for Putin to rescue Syria only to give israel bigger teeth to bite it with. I think Putin is looking to wipe out the power monopoly in the Levant – I think he would prefer two or more strong powers checking each other equally, in a conventional way. Also, Putin knowing that israel is USA’s best friend, he is wary of it and his trust of israel doesn’t extend past his own nose. On a personal level, I sense that Putin despises zionism like he despises neoconism – he’s smart enough to know that there is no difference between them, mindset wise.
Ultimately, though, Russia has regional and international interests that will dictate its use of soft or hard power to achieve it. Nothing trumps the ‘interest’ card – not Russia’s complicated history with its jews, nor Putin’s assumed distaste for zionism.
‘Donald Trump seems to be eager to kick the neocons to the curb.’
I’m not certain about this yet. Have you seen recent news where trump has said this in so many words?
Plenty of data has emerged to detect a pattern here regarding Trump’s hostility to the neoconservative agenda:
he opposed the Iraq War and has raised major questions about the disastrous Libyan and Syrian interventions
he has attacked leading neocons like Charles Krauthammer
he has expressed foreign policy realist views, including a willingness to engage in diplomacy with world leaders like Putin
he ridiculed Marco Rubio’s dependence on Sheldon Adelson (wow — that places him in Mondoweiss territory on the role of Zionist billionaires in American politics)
he has stirred up the wrath of a number of leading neocons
he has attempted to raise the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons (a subject that neocons want to airbrush out of American public consciousness altogether since it distracts from their single-minded obsession with Iran)
Hillary Clinton is much more a besotted neocon hawk than Donald Trump. Trump overall seems to be a traditional American realist and pragmatist of the type that neocons and neolibs fear and despise.
I have problems with many of his views — but he seems to be trending in the right direction with regard to smashing the neoconservative stranglehold on the Republican and Democratic Parties. This is the main reason why the powers that be behind the neocon-controlled mainstream media have gone apoplectic over Trump — and why they have their knives out for him — they view him as a significant threat.
Plenty of data has emerged to detect a pattern here regarding Trump’s hostility to the neoconservative agenda:
+he opposed the Iraq War and has raised major questions about the disastrous Libyan and Syrian interventions
+he has attacked leading neocons like Charles Krauthammer
+he has expressed foreign policy realist views, including a willingness to engage in diplomacy with world leaders like Putin
+he ridiculed Marco Rubio’s dependence on Sheldon Adelson (wow — that places him in Mondoweiss territory on the role of Zionist billionaires in American politics)
+he has stirred up the wrath of a number of leading neocons
+he has attempted to raise the issue of North Korean nuclear weapons (a subject that neocons want to airbrush out of American public consciousness altogether since it distracts from their single-minded obsession with Iran)
Hillary Clinton is much more a besotted neocon hawk than Donald Trump. Trump overall seems to be a traditional American realist and pragmatist of the type that neocons and neolibs fear and despise.
I have problems with many of his views — but he seems to be trending in the right direction with regard to smashing the neoconservative stranglehold on the Republican and Democratic Parties. This is the main reason why the powers that be behind the neocon-controlled mainstream media have gone apoplectic over Trump — and why they have their knives out for him — they view him as a significant threat.
I’ve seen about the same. But, if you look back, Trump also has a history of supporting Israel. It’s hard to know where he comes down on Issues at this point, but I do see his America First attitude may be frightening to the Israeli neocons in the US.
‘When it comes to Jewish ties, no GOP candidate trumps Trump’
http://www.timesofisrael.com/when-it-comes-to-jewish-ties-no-gop-candidate-trumps-trump/
An example of how Trump is making the neocons exceedingly nervous (from neocon central — Commentary Magazine — today):
“Trump’s Secret Foreign Policy Team”
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/campaigns-elections/donald-trump-national-security-foreign-policy/
They strongly suspect that Trump will elude their efforts to turn him into a puppet. From their standpoint, his America First message is pure poison. Marco Rubio is their guy.
One gets the impression that Trump’s models are Dwight Eisenhower, Douglas MacArthur and George Patton — not Vladimir Jabotinsky, David Ben-Gurion and Benjamin Netanyahu — old-school and pre-neocon, pre-neolib Americanism. The neocons cannot abide this cultural outlook. They have labored mightily for decades to destroy it. Trump probably knows the score — the subtexts in play. Pro-Israel militants may come to view Trump as a greater threat than JFK.
All the extreme Zionists wanted Cruz to be their man, but he isn’t very marketable to the American public, given his creepy demeanor, and little boy Rubio has Braman backing him. And since every candidate owes some Jewish billionaire somewhere for campaign contributions, maybe Billionaire Trump will be the one to do it.
Trump is making some of the right enemies, like neocon shrieker Jennifer Rubin:
“Jeb Bush’s big chance to knock out Donald Trump”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2015/10/20/jeb-bushs-big-chance-to-knock-out-donald-trump/
(Per usual, Washington Post readers tear Rubin to shreds.)
There seem to be cracks in the ziocon shell in the usa, but overwhelmingly, they feel secure and strong. Strong enough that the governor of colorado plans to fight to invest colorado’s pot profits in israel. There seem to be few cracks in republican and democratic allegience to israel. All major media is co-opted.
It will take work…but focused work to drive the wedge in the usa. It will probably happen eventually and without nuance. Jews would be wise to define the difference between them and zionists before that window of opportunity closes.
Sage advice.
http://news.antiwar.com/2015/10/25/house-freezes-aid-to-palestinians-for-inflammatory-speech/
House Freezes Aid to Palestinians for ‘Inflammatory’ Speech
‘Fines’ Palestinians $80 Million for Incitement
Cool avatar.
The wild dogs are bragging about their kills every night here in my part of the planet. Btw, agree…there are few cracks in the neocon/lib shell. Re: Palestinian fine, but nothing for Iz.
Great article Taxi.
It was the neocons who instigated the Ukraine debacle. I wonder if they didn’t sense this coming (As you write, balancing Israel’s unrestrained regional destabilization is in the interest of the vast majority of regional and maybe global parties that this Russian intervention was going to happen sooner rather than later.) and sought to forestall it with an equally murderous destabilization on Russia’s front door.
Glad this is happening, whatever the backstory. It’s needed.
the BRIC references at the base are brilliant taxi
I don’t understand why South Africa is so important in BRICS, except geographically.
This here helps shed some light:
South Africa gains entry to Bric club | World news | The Guardian
Also, this dry-assed link from the Economist:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/03/economist-explains-why-south-africa-brics
Wow. Amazing. Thanks.
Looks like ISIS is on the run; 500 ISIS (some reports in Arabic media reported 800) fighters relocated to Yemen. From Tass Russian News Agency:
“IS militants airlifted from Syria to Yemen, Saudi Arabia — Syrian army spokesman
October 27, 20:51
According to the reconnaissance data, on October 26 four planes from Turkey arrived to the airport of the city of Aden (Yemen) with more than 500 IS militants taken from Syria on board
LATAKIA (Syria), October 27. /TASS/. The Islamic State (IS) militants have been airlifted from Syria by Turkish aircraft to save them from Russian airstrikes, spokesman for the Syrian Armed Forces Brigadier General Ali Mayhub said on Tuesday.
“On October 26, according to the reconnaissance data, four planes from Turkey arrived to the airport of the city of Aden (Yemen). Two of them belong to Turkish Airlines, one — to Qatar Airways and one more aircraft owned by an airline of the United Arab Emirates,” said the Syrian army spokesman. “There were more than 500 militants of the Islamic State terrorist organization on board, they were taken from Syria to save them from Russian airstrikes,” General Mayhub said.
According to him, “the militants were met by officers of the Saudi coalition that took them from the airport in three groups. The first went to the city of Al-Bab in Mandeb province (Yemen), the second — to Marib (Yemen), the third — to the Saudi regions of Jizan and Asir.”
Islamic State redeploying reinforcement from Iraq to Syria
Previous reports said the Islamic State terrorist group[ leaders were redeploying reinforcement units from Syria’s Raqqa province and Iraq’s territory to western Syria…”
http://tass.ru/en/world/832207
I thought that the treaty between George HW Bush, The Pope, and Gorby, had decided that the way the world would be split up was a done deal! what we are seeing is the ‘Show” that will get the world to the end plan. The Americans will control everything from Argentina to Canada, the UUSSR will control most of the Middle East, germany will control T\the RU. and China will control SE Asia. Israhell will control the parts of the ME along with the Saudi’s what’s left and will share the profit from the oil/gas fields of Syria with Russia.
Con Man Ahmad Chalabi Dead at 71:
http://lobelog.com/chalabi-greatest-con-man-of-his-generation-dead-at-71/
Joe Cirincione @Cirincione
I remember Richard Perle presenting Chalabi @CFR as the “George Washington of Iraq” & people actually taking this seriously.
Accurate analysis Sean.
IMO however —and if we are thinking of how to rid ourselves of both—it would be easier to bring down the Jewish neos than the non Jewish neos—the Jewish neos have a big Achilles Heel—their fidelity to a foreign country for which they are willing to destroy America to support it—easier to turn the ignorants against them for that.
The non Jeiwsh neos are a harder case–again if we are talking about how to get rid of them also and the ‘ignorants’ they appeal to with their fear mongering and rah rah superpower shit.
“If’ you can destroy the Zio neos first, the non Jewish neos will be easier to bring down–since they can be tarred with their affiliation with the treasonous Zio neos.
I know I have said this a million times but bottom line traitor trumps anti semite every day of the week.
And in today’s climate –and the climate is ripe for it–that is the Only way to destroy them.