I cannot bear to read yet another article on the Palestine-Israel peace process. This is because I no longer see a solution through peaceful means.
Jewish Israeli society has no interest in a Two State Solution, judging by their voting patterns, as well as by Aipac’s expansive anti-peace activities in our congress and in major European parliaments. The Zionists in Israel appear blatantly unapologetic and comfortable with their increasing racism and their Apartheid Laws. No shaming and no earnest appeals for compromise moves them. They are intent on usurping more and more of historic Palestine till the last inch and beyond – even at the cost of Tel Aviv and World War Three.
The Palestinians presently have zero negotiating powers; they have crippling political disunity – they have corruption, they have bankruptcy, they have betrayers and they have no clear direction or effective strategy to end their occupation. They have no notable progress and no true leader. It’s as if the headless Palestinian political body has been clubbed into a numb stupor.
They have nothing.
Except for a young student generation that is utterly disillusioned by everything ‘peace process’. So much so that they’ve started their own mini street war against the giant Zionist death-machine: using knife and Molotov and martyrdom.
So much youthful life wasted down this path, but what’s a dignified, freedom-loving teenager under occupation to do? Accept permanent humiliation and high probability of premature death by occupier just like their fathers and forefathers did? Accept sudden and unjust imprisonment for tortuous decades? Accept permanent loss of dignity and rations of crumbs and salt in the 21st century?
These rebel youth are considered righteous heroes in their community. They are the only current life-pulse of the Palestine cause and their message is loud and clear. They are saying: ‘peace negotiations have failed our great grandparents, failed our grandparents, failed our parents and failed our generation. Therefore war is now the answer’. They want justice and freedom and they want it right now – not tomorrow, not the day after. They want immediate liberation. Or, they want war. A war that goes beyond daggers and slingshots. A war that may cost them everything.
They simply want no occupation, non-negotiable – no matter the cost.
Here, one observes how both sides want what they want, ‘no matter the cost’.
What a sad and terrible state of affairs. One can see how both sides are as far away from peace as the north pole is to the south. And as close to death as skin to bone.
This is the bleak reality.
Giving due respect to BDS and to other such noble civilian movements and individual activists, I’m afraid to say that all their well-meaning activities combined are not sufficient to successfully create the needed equitable changes fast enough to insure the creation of a peaceful Two State Solution, or even a One State multi-ethnic solution. It would have been another story if this level of activism had started en mass three or four decades ago when the Zionist land grabs were not at such an advanced stage and the concept of Palestinian ethnic cleansing was not so shamelessly and publicly celebrated by Zionists in Israel; as well as promoted, aggressively or otherwise, by western policy and media as part and parcel of their Zionist-inspired Islamophobia campaigns.
As it stands, the Zionists will not “give and inch”, as Netanyahu declared a few days ago. And the Palestinians, well, they have nothing to lose – literally.
With the intense crisis currently developing between Putin and NATO a mere 135 miles from Jerusalem, a time for war, for regional war may very well be upon us if the crisis is not soon diffused. A regional war where new and old scores are opportunistically settled between multiple enemies, native and non-native. A war that may very well determine the future of a Palestinian state way before the peace process has had a chance to be miraculously resurrected.
And we can be sure that when such a war erupts, Palestinians will not be alone in fighting for their land – they will be defended and supported by what is referred to as the regional Axis of Resistance, currently gathering weapons and training for what may very well be the last war in the Levant this side of the 21st Century.
A war that may cause the death of Israel and the simultaneous defanging of Aipac. A war that may very well liberate both Palestine and America.
Thank you Taxi. I fully understand the frustration you write about. I feel the same way. So many do. But I can’t see this war happening. And if it does happen there is no way that it can remain a regional war. It will inevitably end up as something much bigger. I can’t ever see the USA turning it’s back and allowing israel to be destroyed. They would undoubtedly join in on israel’s side and that joint force would certainly prevail over any opposition. That’s why I cannot envisage this scenario, not while israel is an American ally.
Am I missing something?
Bornajoo,
I agree. Pro-Israel propaganda in the American mainstream media has dehumanized and demonized Palestinians to such a degree (and Arabs and Muslims as well), that it is difficult to imagine Americans developing a moral passion for the Palestinian cause.
That is why I have been highly skeptical of efforts by Mondoweiss and JVP to equate the pro-Palestinian movement with the American civil rights movement of the sixties — that meme is not likely to gain much traction on the American scene.
As tensions continue to ratchet up between the West and Islam, Palestinians are major losers in the propaganda wars.
Israel may be counting on breaking the will of Palestinians to resist this juggernaut and to make the decision to depart Greater Israel for greener pastures.
Perhaps something could turn this dynamic around — but what? Nothing realistic comes to mind.
It is not likely that Iran and Russia are going to take major risks or make significant sacrifices for the Palestinians — they are as much preoccupied with their self-interest as are Americans.
So this appalling human tragedy may continue to unfold before us, without any effective outside intervention.
Yes you are missing something, bornajoo.
All America can do is attack the attackers of Israel, but it cannot stop the attackers from hitting major israeli targets – certainly not all of them and Israel is a small country that would be quick to riddle with missiles and rockets.
The 2006 war against Hezbollah illustrated to us that a few thousand Hezb rockets emptied the northern third of israel for months. It would be a stretch to think that israel can handle a simultaneous war within and without. At least the CIA didn’t think it could when it released a report saying the Israel would cease to exist in 10-15 years – if memory serves, the report was released 8 years ago.
The unaccounted wild card of Russia’s sudden presence in the Levant and its problems with NATO raise the risk of an earlier war than predicted by the CIA.
There will be war. No doubt about it.
Israel is probably counting on more wars, conducted within the propaganda framework of the Clash of Civilizations and Global War on Terror, to further crush Palestinian resistance and morale, and to consolidate its control over ever larger swathes of Greater Israel. So far that has been a winning strategy. It is difficult to envision how this pattern will be reversed.
I don’t mean to sound pessimistic — I am just trying to look objectively at the facts on the ground in the broadest sense, where “ground” = the disposition of regional and global political forces. No outside player is likely to come to the rescue of the Palestinians.
From its founding (and before), Israel has successfully used every military conflict as an opportunity to expand its territory and power — it has consistently outplayed and overwhelmed its opponents.
A key factor here: Arab nations themselves have shown little interest in making substantive sacrifices to protect the Palestinians and take up their cause — probably because they were so badly burned in previous military confrontations with Israel.
Taxi, I’m inclined to agree with Sean’s summary. If Hezbollah started sending missiles over into israel the Zionist maniacs would carpet bomb the entirety of south lebanon. They wouldn’t ever try ground forces again as they know they’ll get whipped like the previous occasion. They wouldn’t give a damn about how many innocent civilians they would kill. Just look what they did to Gaza and what they did in 82. And as usual nobody would step in or intervene as they would claim self defence and the Americans would back them all the way
I just can’t see it. But you definitely know much more than me so I’m keeping an open mind
Bornajoo,
If Hezbollah attacked Israel in a significant way, Israel would turn much of Lebanon into Gaza — or much worse. That is a likely scenario. And, once again, the American political establishment, under the pressure of the Israel lobby, would defend this action in the name of legitimate self-defense — required to prevent a second Holocaust. Most Americans would go along — they have been heavily conditioned by decades of scientific propaganda to do so.
Those are my calculations, at any rate.
Sean,
There is only one more war left in the Levant. Hezbollah will not willy-nilly strike at israel single-handedly. The plan of the axis of resistance cooperative is to strike at israel first and keep striking plenty and fast while taking the hits – and before you know it, tel aviv with its military command centers, government offices and airport are in smoking ruins.
Hezb now has anti aircraft missles and a vast stockpile of attack drones all aimed at israel so the israeli blitzes are a lot more complicated for the israelis to perform than back in 2006. Plus there is no difference between israel blitzing Lebanon from the air or Hezbollah sending a wash of 15.000 rockets and missiles per hour at prime israeli targets. Here, one must fully understand the current military balance of terror at hand – and the cowardice of the israeli population.
Iran is committed to liberating Jerusalem. It is in its interest as an ‘islamic’ state. Iran is completely immersed in the Palestine cause and has already invested heavily in preparing for such a time as the physical liberation of Jerusalem and Palestine. And it is perfectly capable of delivering a fatal blow to israel and taking the hits back – it’s a vast country after all. Why else do you think Israel has intensively targeted Iran on the international scene for the past 2 decades? Because Iran has time and time again declared its eternal support for the Palestinian cause, spiritually, morally and militarily. Zionist media would want you to think that the Palestinians have no real friends. But they do. Here in the Levant, the news of who is friend and who is foe is clear cut and not propagandized. It’s a different picture one sees when viewing the valley from a zio-free hilltop.
No doubt the israelis have sophisticated and deadly weapons, but their enemies have by now caught up some with them. Besides, what use of the enemy’s cannon if their heart can be pierced with a small bullet. It is not the size of the dog in the fight that matters, but the size of the fight in the dog, as the saying goes.
This next war will not be an Arab-Israeli war. It will be a multi-national regional war that will suck in the zionists and the regional anti-zionist forces into the fray. It will be an ideological war and not a war of ethnicity.
The conditions and the players today are not what they used to be. It is advisable not to rely on old data when assessing the next war. Which is inevitable.
Taxi,
You wrote:
“There is only one more war left in the Levant. Hezbollah will not willy-nilly strike at israel single-handedly. The plan of the axis of resistance cooperative is to strike at israel first and keep striking plenty and fast while taking the hits – and before you know it, tel aviv with its military command centers, government offices and airport are in smoking ruins.”
Nasser, Arafat, Saddam and Gaddafi all underestimated the resolve and military capabilities of Israel, and paid a heavy price for misreading reality — for believing in their own heated rhetoric.
In every confrontation with its Arab adversaries, Israel has ended up in a stronger political and military position, while acquiring more territory.
If Nasrallah and Hezbollah, with their allies, truly believe that they can take down Israel, with acceptable consequences for themselves, why haven’t they pulled the trigger yet? At what point do you expect them to pull the trigger, and under what circumstances?
If they bet the farm on an all-out attack, what are the odds they will lose the farm, and continue the well-established and self-destructive tradition of Nasser, Arafat, Saddam and Gaddafi?
Keep in mind that in this war, Israel will probably enjoy the full political, military and economic support of the United States and Europe — while Russia and Iran will probably stand on the sidelines, unwilling to risk being burned.
The balance of forces in this scenario would seem to favor Israel.
You’re dragging up old data, Sean – you cannot rely on this methodology for current accurate analysis as non of the factors or players are the same. Plus, you omit to mention that those wars won by israel were won last minute when a third party (USA, UK, or France) stepped in to save israel’s ass.
Iran will participate – it’s been preparing for it for a long time. There is actually a military pact between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah – their little regional NATO. And if America actually steps into the Zionists versus anti-Zionist war, then so will Russia. The current military alliance between Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah should not be underestimated. Again, I repeat: the biggest disadvantage that israel has is its size – very quick to destroy major targets and some more – very quick to close the country’s infrastructure down.
“At what point do you expect them to pull the trigger, and under what circumstances?”
I’d be a zillionaire if I could determine the future. But suffice it to say if NATO stirs trouble in central Levant, expect fireworks to start between zionists and the anti-zionists down south – plausibly beginning with the liberation of the Syrian Golan from illegal zionist annexation and occupation. International law gives countries the right to first strike to liberate lands under foreign occupation, so to strike at the idf in the golan is actually not a war of aggression under international law, but a war of liberation – a war that will quickly spill west over the golan hills and into historic Palestine. I advise studying a map of the region, Sean, especially the longitude and latitude point where Lebanon, Syria and historic Palestine meet.
An issue I wonder about but haven’t looked into yet — Israeli tactical nukes — nukes that can be used in relatively close proximity without suffering significant physical blowback.
Does anyone have the up-to-date info on that?
If israel uses nukes in whatever shape or form and at whatever location, then the other side will use the Damona: by striking it. Israel’s checked on nukes too, Sean. Though both sides use different armory, the balance of terror works out the same.
Question is, should USA go into yet another mideast war on behalf of israel and risk a head-on collision with Russia (and China)? This is what the American voter needs to decide before the coming elections.
Interesting question: what is the worst-case scenario for a coordinated attack on Dimona? How much damage could AOR (the Axis of Resistance) inflict — and how much damage would it suffer in return? How heavily protected is Dimona from missile attacks? Is it possible that Israel has already secretly relocated many of its Dimona ops — making it a false target?
The US and Russia have no interest in getting sucked into World War III — quite the contrary — which means that they may eventually get together to impose a solution on the parties to the I/P conflict — take the terms or else. Israel may in fact be relieved by that outcome.
I don’t know enough about the contents of the Damona and nuclear science to answer your question, Sean, but for sure a strike on the Damona would cause great panic and a considerable chunk of the population would pack up and leave israel – Aliya would suffer an instant and fatal blow tantamount to the death of zionism itself.
A “false target” scenario doesn’t make sense, Sean – it’s not an easy thing to hide over two hundred nukes, with all the support and maintenance that each nuke would need, in a tiny territory like Negev. And besides, even if this were so, who’s to say that Hezbollah wouldn’t already have intelligence on this – photographic intelligence gathered by their drones flying below radars and ever present in israeli skies.
And yes, it’s keen thinking to propose that Russia and USA may very well step in, not to defend their client states but instead to impose a solution on Israel and the Palestinians. I’ve heard seasoned mideastern analysts describe this exact scenario and add that this path’s success would hinge on the ‘type’ of American and Russian presidents who would be involved at the time – the crucial ‘chemistry’ between them.
Taxi,
There are reports that Iran has buried elements of its nuclear program in deep and impregnable underground fortresses — I would be surprised if Israel hasn’t made similar moves (with as much secrecy as possible, of course). Certainly Israeli strategists have thought long and hard about threats to Dimona.
Regarding the US and Russia imposing a settlement on Israel and the Palestinians — the final shape of that settlement would depend on the degree of pro-Israel sentiment on the American side vs. the degree of pro-Palestinian sentiment on the Russian side. I’m not sure how passionate Russians are about the Palestinian cause. I would be surprised if there is a Palestinian lobby in Russia to match the power of the Israel lobby in the US.
Any such settlement would probably favor Israel over the Palestinians — it is doubtful that Russia is prepared to make major sacrifices for the Palestinians. Correct me if I am wrong.
But a settlement of this type might spare Palestinians from the worst-case scenarios that are on the table.
It would spare both sides, Sean. I’ve given plenty of information on israel’s weaknesses and on its foe’s strengths – just to balance out the MSM’s usual over-exaggerations of israeli powers and its constant under-crediting of the powers of its foes. The idea is to be aware of both sides’ weaknesses and strengths so as to arrive at sound analysis.
The ’67 borders (with agreed upon land swaps) is the internationally accepted model that Russia and USA would be working with. Israel considers a return to the ’67 borders a major catastrophe – being forced to give up all that land it usurped by force of arms is a spiky pill to swallow for the zionists – they have heavily invested in their messianic colony, both financially and emotionally.
It is obvious that without the formula of the ’67 border, it’s impossible to geographically have a contiguous Palestinian state, and a non-contiguous landmass cannot be defined or turned into a stable state.
Almost unanimously, the world desires a Palestinian state and an Israel humiliated at battle and rescued under strict condition of signing a ’67 peace deal is about the only feasible path to a true and proper Two State Solution.
In a sense, the Two State Solution can only come about through war.
Taxi,
An imposed US/Russian solution to the Israeli/IP conflict would almost certainly be based on the well-established two-state formula that has been around now for decades.
Actually, imagine the US, Europe and Russia joining in an alliance against ISIS and Muslim extremism while at the same time shouldering the Israelis and Palestinians into a peaceful settlement that will be backed up by massive outside military, political and economic force. A twofer. Leverage the anti-ISIS alliance into an unstoppable push for a solution to the I/P conflict — with Israel and the new Palestinian state expected to join the fight against ISIS.
Sean,
The next war will be the first war that will take place inside of israeli territory. They are not used to having wars in their quarters. Many will flee the warzone and be very reluctant to return.
Iran and the Levant resistances that include the Syrian army with all its latest Russian gifts have the will, the dedication and the means to destroy israel with conventional weapons and take the hits back from israel and from America – short of their use of nukes, of course. But nukes area highly unlikely scenario as it would be just as easy to destroy the Damona as it would be to press a button and send a nuke to Iran.
There is a common resolve right now in the Levant region that both Israel and isis must go at absolutely any cost. Either the occupiers go, or the natives die. No other future is envisioned. No fear of death.
‘Where there is no fear of death, there is victory’ – The Art of War.
Taxi,
Your scenario may be right — but my gut instinct is that Israel may well be able to absorb considerable punishment but still end up ahead when the dust clears — perhaps far ahead, decisively ahead — with the back of its opposition in the region permanently broken.
In fact, Israel may be deliberately trying to squeeze and provoke the opposition to make a last-ditch desperation move — after having run all the numbers and calculated the likely outcome.
Any way you look at this situation is disturbing, scary and depressing. I keep thinking, why should it be so difficult to work out a reasonable and equitable solution that works out for everyone? But the level of fanaticism in play in this conflict seems to be too intense to manage by the usual rational methods.
Believe me, I can feel your frustration and anger. But Hezbollah and its allies had better game out the most probable outcomes of any direct military confrontation with Israel and its allies before acting precipitously or out of desperation. The first rule of war: never underestimate the capabilities of your opponent — and don’t act out of emotion.
(Counterargument: the American revolutionaries took great risks against what appeared to be a superior military opponent, and won all the marbles. They acted on emotion and determination, not on modern and cold-blooded game theory. Who dares wins. But then I keep thinking about the outcome of the 1967 War.)
Sean,
The only people who are desperate are the Palestinians. Neither Hizbollah nor Iran are anywhere near even the whiff of desperate. On the contrary, they exhibit nothing but calm calculation, physical confidence and steely nerves. They are exceptionally patient strategists and well-prepared opportunists. And they are profoundly fixated on destroying zionism – lest it destroys them. They are also fearless warriors, and Israelis, we know from battlefield records, fear whoever doesn’t fear them.
This is not 1967 – and we are not talking Arab versus Israeli war. We are talking Zionist and anti-zionist war.
@Taxi
There is much truth in what you say. The militarist equation has indeed changed and is significantly unfavorable to Israel. In a recent leak, it was revealed that with several different war simulation scenarios, the Pentagon was unable to come up with a winning strategy for attacking Iran, leave alone the combined might of Iran, Syria, Lebanon, with certain participation from Iraq, and more than moral support from Russia. Even the Kurds can be counted on, were Turkey to enter the fray.
Here is how I look at it – Israel cannot win a land war against the combined forces of Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as fending off the Palestinian skirmishes. Throw Russian presence into the equation, along with the war-weariness of the US/European public, and you have a very different picture from a few years ago.
So, Israel’s only option is to resort to aerial attacks, and finally with nukes.
Let’s look at that scenario from a defensive perspective.
The amassing of S-400 anti-missiles in Syria, and soon in Iran, will pretty much neutralize any aerial threats on the combined land masses of Iran, Syria, and Lebanon.
Without even going into the attack capabilities of the Sunburn armament, the S-400s are more than a match for the best of our aircraft, including the much ballyhooed piece of junk that is the F-35 (which Israel has asked for). Given the long distance that Israeli bombers will need to traverse, they will need aerial refueling in order to return, should they escape the onslaught of S-400 defenses by some miracle. Given the distance and the strategic positioning of these refueling aircraft, they themselves become targets for the S-400 missiles, as well as the thousands of SAMs at the disposal of the Iranians, as well as Russian and Syrian aircraft, and Syrian, and Hizbollah forces.
So, that leaves Israel with just ICBM missiles for the attacks – and the S-400s are more than adequate to defend against them. Even if some missiles were to get through, the size of terrain we are talking about is massive, and so the relative damage will be insufficient to declare victory.
The US will think twice before supporting Israel from aircraft carriers in the gulf. The swarms of Iranian boats as well as the Sunburn missiles would not only decimate the US fleet there, it would also shut down the gulf to all oil shipment and trade, bringing the world economy to its knees in a matter of days.
So, that just leaves nukes from their German submarines. These too, can be intercepted by the S-400s, not to mention that the first nuke that Israel launches will effectively be their demise – not that they need any help.
Now look at the attack perspective.
Israel is a tiny piece of landmass and all the military targets, including Dimona, are all well-identified, and well within the range of Iranian and Hizbollah missiles, as well as the S-400 attack range. The quantity of missiles available for simultaneous launch against Israel is staggering in proportion. Even if the Patriot missiles were effective (they have less than 10% success rate), there is no missile shield that can protect tiny Israel from a continuous barrage of 10s of thousands of missiles raining down on every square inch of that shitty little country – and we are not talking about the firecrackers that Hamas lobs at them. Sampson option or not, Israel would cease to exist within hours. The minute the first missiles hit their targets, you will see those spoilt Israeli settler brats scurrying like rats from a sinking ship.
So, you are right in your analysis.
The problem with propaganda, such as what the western mouthpieces fill the airwaves with, is that you start to believe your own bullshit about being ‘special’ and invincible. Mortality has a funny way of waking you up to the reality of the frailty of the present.
Sayonara Israel.
“Israel’s air superiority clouded by new Russian missiles in Syria”
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-air-superiority-in-syria-clouded-by-russian-s-400/
Israel doesn’t appear to be in a state of panic about the S-400s.
They wouldn’t have written about it if they weren’t nervous about it, Sean. Homefront propaganda in israel is intensive and relentless. First they wind their people up with the politics of fear, the they wind them down with ‘assurances’ that their state defenses are supreme. It’s always the same, every day it’s the same. Up and down, up and down like a yoyo they spin their people. It’s utterly nauseating for a discerning goy to read the israeli press.
And they’ve been over-emphasizing their so-called ‘friendship’ with Russia lately. Like Putin is gonna buddy up to America’s best friend – yeah right. Again, they do this to ‘comfort’ their nation of crybabies.
Russia would not interfere in a Levant war between the zionists and non-zionists, but it will if the USA steps in and starts attacking Damascus, for instance.
It’s a lot more complicated for israel to maneuver militarily in the Levant now that Russia is there and there to stay.
Cloak,
To know what’s really going on in the Levant, one has to first bypass the mainstream media that relentlessly over-exaggerates israel’s strength and under-reports the resistance’s progress.
It’s laughable really: jewish organizations (probably based in Hollywood) put out slick videos like this that literally say that the “jews are immortal”:
https://youtu.be/j6k1jHAYtbI
Really now!!!
Thank you for your informative post, Cloak – adding meat to my skeleton article.
https://lobelog.com/the-stealth-campaign-in-congress-to-support-israeli-settlements/
The Stealth Campaign in Congress to Support Israeli Settlements
As documented in detail below, backers of this campaign clearly believe they have found a winning strategy, one that involves hijacking more and more elements of U.S. foreign policy and working to tie them, in law, to U.S. support for settlements. The energy behind this campaign shows no sign of abating, and there are no indications that Congress is waking up to the dangers this campaign holds—not only for the chances of achieving Israeli-Palestinian peace, but for an ever-widening range of U.S. policies and interests.
On February 10, Representatives Roskam (R-IL) and Vargas (D-CA) introduced HR 825. On March 2, Senators Cardin (D-MD) and Portman (R-OH) introduced their companion bill, S. 619 (
On November 9, Senators Cruz (R-TX) and Gillibrand (D-NY), along with 34 other senators, sent a letter to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, slamming the EU for its impending policy of requiring that labels on products coming from Israeli settlements accurately reflect their point of origin, which means they cannot say “made in Israel.” On November 10, Representatives Lamborn (R-CO) and Weber (R-TX), along with 34 of their House colleagues, sent a similar letter to Mogherini. Both letters treat the EU policy as a form of BDS against Israel. The Senate letter specifically references the pro-settlements provisions passed into law as part of the TPA legislation as justification for its attack on the EU’s policy, underscoring the fact that defending settlements was, from the start, the intent behind those provisions.
Their effort, which once again being framed as pro-Israel and anti-BDS, is reportedly strongly supported by Wyden (D-OR) and Senate Minority Leader Reid (D-NV). ”
I am too tired to even attempt war games tonight. But will say what I’ve always said …nationalism is where its at baby. And there is no greater power than nationalism because it is the ONLY ideology that can unite the masses. And no more powerful weapon than the accusation of treason to create that nationalism. And like in chess you have to take out the Kings and Queens to win the game. You gotta go after the traitors. You have to put the traitors in fear and chaos. Nothing in the ME is gonna end justly until you end the US Zionist.
They’re rushing to make it law cuz they know the settlements’ days are numbered and they want to drag America to the settlers’ graves with them.
This is why Jews, or Zionist if you please, hate gentile nationalism but guard their own tribal interests and national identity.
Right now they are trying to incite US nationalism against Muslims (& the Arab world). While they try to protect themselves against any US nationalism at the same time.
That makes it more important than ever to call out, yell about, attack the Isr Fifth Column.
I think I see the politically correct age of spin coming to an end in the US—Trump’s non pc-ness has loosen and emboldened a mother load of anger in this country from all kinds of people fed up with the status quo
Anti Israelites should take advantage of the new anger climate–time is ripe.
Right you are. I’m dismayed that Taxi seems to embrace the war scenario (and that she mourns the window closing on the 2-state mirage). It may come to war, but with Israel’s war outlook so bleak, they may yet be brought to heel, and the place to do that is here in the US. The Zionists’ and Jews’ (sorry if there are any dissemblers here who object to my saying this) attempts at censorship at college campuses and other venues are acts of desperation. Their efforts to suppress knowledge is evidence of potential effectiveness.
Unfortunately, many would-be allies for our national interest are also Islamophobes, racists and generally White/Christian Supremacists, so it’s a challenging course to tread. Nevertheless, it holds the best prospects.
b.grand
I cannot see how Palestine can be liberated from American university halls. Not to belittle their efforts but university halls spread awareness, that’s all – they have no power to crush AIPAC in Washington or the IDF on the battleground.
And yes, the 2SS is dead. I don’t call that “embracing” the war scenario, I call it aligning with realism.
While the media keeps every one busy with the illusion of a 2SS, the zionists keep expanding and building more settlements, continue creating the infamous “facts on the ground”.
At this stage of the game, only force with evict the occupier.
I’m surprised at you. (The ‘university halls’ quip.) I simply gave an example of how the Zio’s are scurrying to plug every leak. The challenge is how to harness and direct the energy of the nationalists (who mostly just spout off from their computers).
As for awareness, most of the anti-Semites and the Peaceniks are still surprisingly unaware of either Israel’s history of ethnic cleansing or the Zionist Lobby’s control of US politics (or both).
I’m not belittling the power of creating ‘awareness’, just being realistic and saying that ‘awareness’ does nothing on the battlefield. Awareness is for the spectators of war, it is not an actual
weapon of war. Where ‘awareness’ is fruitful is in setting up the moral high ground in times of war.
In my estimation, at this stage of the game, only war will crush zionism.
Speaking of various scenarios in the greater Middle east, much depends now on how the battle lines are shaping up in Syria. There can be no doubt that there is a confrontation afoot between the anglo-zionist empire (in which one must include the entire so-called “west”) that is striving for hegemonic uni-polar world dominated by the US, and the forces now coalescing under Russia/China (with the latter in the shadows for now) that are aiming for a multi-polar world. Syria is rapidly becoming the principal arena where the two sides will be waging battle dangerously at close quarters.
We have just seen what Turkey has done – clearly they have been brought to heel by the Anglo-zio side. Israel is a player in this, even though its role is currently in the shadows. Although Russia is making every effort to “play nice” with Israel, it’s not like they don’t anticipate trouble from that corner and have no doubt made contingency plans.
There have been astute analysis of the grand geo-political games by MoA and The Saker, who seem to understand well which way the winds blow even if none can completely predict the outcome. So not to repeat, I’ll just say that there is a critical play for time now. IF the Russia/Syria/Iran/Hezb axis gain the upper hand 9say by evicting the islamists from Alleppo and taking over the corridor with Turkey) then all bets are off. The Empire will go nuts, and will no doubt make its own dangerous moves not just in Syria/Iraq but in Ukraine and Latin America. There are unfortunately crazy neocons in the US and NATO who think they can win an all out war with Russia. Crazy they may be but with crazy parts of israel and Gulf states in tow, it’s hard to dismiss the potential for things spinning out of control.
Given all this, I think Palestine’s best bet is to play for time. However hard that is. IMO it is best (at least for those of us here on the sidelines) to play the long game as Russia does and the pragmatists of Iran and China do (and yes, I do have issues with China do but that’s another story). Take a page from Putin’s book and make no move before it’s time, and before the reactions can be gauged and estimated.
Personally, I do think that this is a time of waiting for both Palestine and israel. not only because of what’s happening in Syria but also because of various demographic pressures within Israel. I expect that within as little as 5 years their society will start to implode because of the rapid rise of the jewish orthodox and ultra-orthodox populations. The signs are already there, but the clouds are gathering ever faster. If the palestinians can hold out for another 10 years, and if the Russians succeed in holding their turf and expanding it in Syria, I think we’ll be seeing some very interesting trends, including an israel that will be shedding its secular population ever faster. That can also lead to some potentially dangerous ill-advised moves by the new more fundamentalist military leaders of israel who are rapidly rising in the ranks. Eventually they’ll make a serious mis-step. And that is when things will start heating up.
Sorry for going off on such a wide arc, but things will not and cannot happen in isolation. Much needs to be taken into account before starting the count-down. In the meantime, personally I hate to see good young palestinian lives lost to no avail.
Thank you, Danaa, for sharing your astute understanding and observations of the current mideast chessboard. You did not go off on an “arc” at all. What you did was further define the geopolitical reality and interconnected complexity that the mainstream media is allergic to printing. And you’re absolutely striking the bulls eye when you reference Syria as being the center of the current power struggles, both regional and global. All roads lead to Damascus… indeed.
As for what the Palestinians can do in the meantime, I hesitate to give them advice that I personally couldn’t apply to myself. To remain passive for another ten years with the zionist boot pressing harder and harder on neck, well… if I were a Palestinian, I’m not so sure that I would be able to practice sainthood under these conditions and for that length of time. Having said that, I really don’t think it would take another decade for the “last war in the Levant this side of the 21st century” to ignite. I see a NATO/Russia conflict possibly igniting soon in the Levant and this little war between giants will fire up what I call the coming Zionist versus anti-Zionist war. Two wars in one spot. A massive BUT confined regional war bordering on WW3. Neither side would want or would allow the conflict to go beyond the boundaries of the Levant, otherwise our global economy will go bust – something that no one wants to see happen. And regardless of the results of the clash between NATO and Russia, israel will be left in a smoking heap – and the military demolition will not take long, considering the smallness of israeli territory and the limited number of reachable targets it possesses.
Even though the zionists have succeeded in introducing chaos into their neighbor’s nations and weakening their political landscape, they have not yet succeeded in halting the military advancements of the axis of resistance. This means that israeli security is not full-proof by any means at all. In fact, the opposite is true. As their enemies’ armory get bigger by the day, the israelis are less and less able to protect their territory. Each passing day, this equation disadvantages them.
Israel is not invincible, nor is it immortal, as zionist propaganda would have you believe.
Excellent stuff, Danaa and Taxi.
“All roads lead to Damascus… indeed.”
“Israel is not invincible, nor is it immortal, as zionist propaganda would have you believe.”
Biggest chink in the Zionist armour is its false sense of invincibility. Making the desert bloom, mastery over destiny and other myths are inbuilt in Zionism, myths that will be proved wrong in due time as is the finality of all myths. The same will happen to belligerent Gulf states and Saudi Arabia and the oligarchy in Washington which does not serve ordinary Americans, the laws of cause and effect guarantee that any excess has a rebound effect.
Danaa,
France, Germany and Europe in general seem to be moving towards a closer relationship with Russia in the struggle against ISIS and Islamic radicalism — how does that trend figure into your calculations? Are we going to be witnessing increasing dissension with NATO — perhaps even a weakening of NATO? How much discontent within NATO is there regarding Turkey’s behavior even now?
What about the trend towards increasing ethnic nationalism in Europe? — (one might describe it as European “Zionism,” or even neo-Nazism). There is a parallel trend towards increasing crypto-white nationalism in the United States (which is arguably what the Donald Trump phenomenon is largely about).
It is easy to envision Palestinians (and Palestinian nationalism) getting lost in the shuffle here.
How does climate change figure into your strategic calculations? — its impact could be huge — particularly in terms of inflaming fear, hysteria, xenophobia, ethnic nationalism, religious nationalism, etc. — every group for itself, struggling to survive on the sinking Titanic.
Regarding climate change, see this:
“Elon Musk: Climate change could cause ‘more destruction than all the wars in history combined'”
http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-on-climate-change-2015-12
Current European political trends — ethnic nationalism (“Zionism”) on the march:
“French far-right tipped to triumph in post-attacks regional vote”
http://news.yahoo.com/far-tipped-triumph-post-attacks-french-regional-vote-105800694.html
“France’s far-right National Front (FN) appears to be on course for an historic breakthrough in regional elections this weekend, with the country still traumatised by last month’s Paris terror attacks.”
I’m sure their Likudist bffs are rubbing their hands together with glee.
One begins to realize that Jewish nationalists and white nationalists in the West are beginning to work cooperatively (if, so far, mostly under the table) — a pattern that reminds one of cooperation between Zionists and European antisemites during the early phases of Zionism. (Herzl explicitly pitched his message to European antisemites.)
They share a similar ideological outlook on the world (peoplehood, “the Volk,” first) and similar strategic interests — at least for the time being. Currently hostility towards Islam is the glue that binds them together.
The most ardent antisemites in the West have begun to realize that their best play is to back Israel and Zionism to the hilt — which may explain the presence of numerous non-Jews among the ranks of neoconservatives and Christian Zionists.
The master plan, apparently, from the standpoint of white nationalists — you get Israel; we recover and “purify” our respective homelands in Europe and the United States.
Sean, re your questions:
I wouldn’t put too much stock in the rapproachment between France/Germany and Russia. Unfortunately the former are obliged for some reason to act as water carriers for the US, and as we have seen in the case of the Ukraine, the EU as a whole is a very weak organization that can, at best, act to check the worst impulses of US neocons. Kind of like we saw in Minsk. Russia knows that and is proceeding accordingly – basing their moves or lack thereof on a very very long game, basically betting that in the end the need for trade and improved economies will win the more pragmatic Europeans over. For that to happen, it is essential for the Russians to score some serious victories in Syria. hence my assessment that much will depend on how things fare in Syria militarily.
If the Russians with the help of Syrian and allied armies win serious territories back from ISIS/al-Nusra etc. then watch the Europeans start to “peel off” from the “NATO consensus” as engineered by US hegemons/necons.
2 No, the Palestinans do not feature directly, but they stand to gain greatly from a Russian successful gambit. AS taxi said, Russia will be recognized as a key player in the Middle east, as much as the US and SA may hate hit. Russia is also de-facto allied with hezbollah and that will give them a unique strategic view of the situation. Israel, in turn, will have to accept Russia’s role, which is likely at soe point to challenge the al Nusra control of the area next to the Golan. This is where things will start to get interesting.
3 Regarding the effects of global warming – I believe that while important and significant, these will not become key factors for another 10, maybe 15 years. The water is still there. The rains are still coming. The Negev desert has not started to move northwards significantly yet, but the problems will come in just over 10 years, and become barely manageable in 20. From this various conclusions can be drawn but I don’t want to belabor in this already too long a comment.
4 Finally, I don’t mean to diminish in any way the disruptive effects of global warming but IMO, the impact of the demographic shift in Israel towards the ultra-religious will happen sooner. That someone like Naftali Bennet can even be in the Israeli cabinet is a harbinger of the future. I am reading more and more of israelis either leaving or planning to leave (good article in haaretz on that not long ago). This trend will only accelerate. My prediction is that the negative effects of the population shift in Israel will become impossible to ignore within 5 years. And in 10 years, it’ll be a different landscape there altogether. One of my more novel predictions is that the secular left in israel will suddenly “discover” the potential political power of the more or less secular Arab israelis. parties like Hadash will start gaining. And that will breath new life into possible openings to Palestine. Alas, this not being a majority, there is little hope of actual progress towards 1SS or 2SS but the former I believe will start gaining a foot hold in Israel proper, just because the Palestinians, including the muslim moderates among them and certainly the Christians, will seem far less foreign and less threatening to Israel’s seculars than their own militantly religious zealots.
On this last one, remember – you saw it here first.
Danaa,
These are the seven most important strategic factors in play as I see it:
+artificial intelligence/robotics
+ethnic/religious nationalism/xenophobia
+genetic engineering
+global technocracy
+global warming/climate change
+overpopulation/pollution
+radical wealth inequality
Sean, I don’t disagree with your strategic factors in general as they will affect human affairs in the coming years.
Still, the interplays between these and the prioritization of what will come first is key. For example, if global warming accelerates, AND population increases enough to knock down the global GDP disastrously, then the economic migration we just saw in Europe will be child’s play compared to what will come.
If these trends kick in before technology had a chance to either counter or mitigate the more negative consequences, then the declining economics, lowered aggragate demands and a lower global growth will, in all likelihood, slow the advances in AI/nanotechnology/robotics. I.e., technical advances will still happen aplenty but their economic utilization will suffer a hit.
So, I believe that it is the relative timing of the strategic factors that matters most. One factor sprinting to the fore can knoock down several others.
Danaa,
An interesting AI (and computer modeling) problem is trying to figure out all the ways those strategic factors might interact in the coming decades.
What strikes me as likely is that the combination of climate change, overpopulation, pollution and radical wealth inequality will greatly exacerbate ethnic and religious nationalism and xenophobia worldwide. When societies and peoples are placed under heavy physical and financial stress, they tend to circle the wagons based on cultural identity — and claw savagely to maintain their shrinking security and wealth.
An alternative scenario is that we will be smart enough to use cutting-edge technologies to solve these problems and relieve the social and human stress.
By the way, have you seen the photos of extreme smog in China and India over the last week? — pure science fiction dystopianism — and happening now. For instance:
“China smog: “The air is so polluted it’s darkened the sky””
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-34972375
Yes, Sean, I have seen the smog photos – dystopian indeed. I think it’s fair to say that both China and India are under huge pressure to do “something”. China in particular is obviously planning a major shift to natural gas, hindered mainly by the time it takes to build the pipelines AND counter the regional coal dependent governants. China does nothing fast, but they can accelerate. They announced for example up to 11o coal nuclear plants over the next 10 years.
The problem in Beijing are cars. I would expect near-draconian smog reduction measures to be put in place and enforced over the next 2 years. That for a start. A mandated shift to electric cars – with the attendant increase in electric power generation, will come next.
Finally, the reason I am a bit sanguine about the greatness of AI based solution is economic. Yes, the progress technologically is there and is impressive. It’s the putting it in place as part of the total economic picture that’s lacking. And on that front, the US with its labirinthian system of privatized and fractured economic entities and the near-ban on government based initiatives (which would, IMO< be essential to a successful shift of in the paradigms of power production and distribution), is at a tremendous disadvantage compared with China and Russia (India is another story. It’s a mess on all fronts).
And yes, an AI based model to figure out the interplay and projections of all these factors would be an excellent problem to tackle. But who has the money for that? the think tanks? academia? (up to a point yes, but it’ll be limited by the ideology/interests that provided the money in the first place). Frankly, my expectation is that this is exactly the kind of modeling going on in Russia and probably China, where they are freer to supply the funds. Some of the very best analysis I have been seeing come nowadays from Russian based sources. Somewhere, some people are becoming educated, but it ain’t in the US of A, alas.
Danaa,
Actually, DARPA, DoD, CIA, MIT and some other American institutions have been working on projects like this for decades — but I gather that much of it is classified.
Hedge funds seem to be particularly interested in developing cutting-edge AI-based global models — for the obvious reasons — they can make enormous sums of money with crystal balls that actually work.
Sean, I am quite familiar with what DARPA is funding, as well as some DoD projects (the unclassified ones especially). The point I made is that nothing is more wasteful than letting the military branches (of which DARPA, DoD etc are part) fund virtually all or most of the technological innovations. Their focus is generally quite narrow, aiming primarily at advantaging the military segment, as their charter dictates. A woefully small portion trickles to the private industry for things that can benefit the larger commercial market segments actually, and what does trickle down happens quite slowly.
Mind you, something like AI for military goals and for commercial marketplace go in radically different directions. In the former case, cost is not much of an object so economically wasteful ideas proliferate. In the latter, cost is the be all and end all, so whatever solutions work for the military for example, are often found to be quite unsuitable.
What I am saying is that the US has a huge disadvantage when it comes to introducing technological advancements into the actual marketplace. That’s because we have only small R&D dedicated to commercializable projects despite fine words to the contrary. It’s NSF and NIH, basically, and their budgets are not commensurate with the importance of the segments they serve. By “small” I mean in comparison to the size a, resources and challenges of this country.
Two cases in point: 1. solar power, where we have totally lost the leadership to the Chinese, and 2. smart grid, where there has been far more talk than action, and where we are running far behind the Europeans for example.
I can provide you with many many examples where US was first in the innovation, but fell way behind when it came to commercial implementation. But that’s way OT here on this thread.
Anyways, economics intertwining with innovation happens to be one of my favorite hobby-horses.
Danaa,
Ok — I get your main point now (missed it on first read) — yes — you’re right.
Of course some military research projects have produced successful commercial results — satellite communications, the Internet, etc. But the process is quite inefficient and hit-or-miss.
The DoD might argue that when you go for “space shots” (to use Larry Page’s lingo), you need to expect quite a few failures — cost of doing business and all that. The few successful ventures supposedly make up for the many failed ventures.
What interests me is that a race is currently underway among powerful private interests (including hedge funds) to build the world’s most powerful AI-based crystal ball. The potential financial rewards can be enormous for the winners.
Think Sauron, perhaps? (As I recall, Palantir Technologies actually uses that image — One Ring to rule them all.)
(You may recall our previous discussion about Alex Karp on Friendfeed — since erased from cyberspace by Facebook.)
You always make me think, Taxi. Thanks.
In terms of Israeli vulnerability, I would add that 20% of Israel’s water supply (and its only possibility of population maintenance, leaving aside growth) is right on the coast in its vaunted but extremely vulnerable desalination plants. One cruise missile and Israel depopulates as all the Euros head back (permanently) to their accustomed lifestyles in their wet countries of origin.
I’ll go out on a limb here, but judging from Israel’s near cataclysmic inability to fight forest fires I bet their arrogance “allows” them to skimp on defense these desalination plants are relatively poorly protected (at least according to their truly existential importance).
I have always looked on your war imminence theory as kind of a severe inverted pendulum dynamic (just a description, not in any way a dig). Picture a car balanced on a broomstick. Israel has managed to keep the car balanced but it’s starting to sway. With that much (political and/or anger) mass in play, it won’t take much movement for the dynamics to change and the regional (“one more”) war you outline so well decides it’s going to happen.
BUT, as of now the balancing forces are more powerful than the perturbing forces, imvho. Barely. TBD…
Thanks again for your writing.
“I have always looked on your war imminence theory as kind of a severe inverted pendulum dynamic… Picture a car balanced on a broomstick.”
Wow Ritzl – that’s a superb depiction and metaphoric image – thank you – you too “make me think”.
And you are absolutely correct when you say that israel today sits in a very strong position – but it sits precarious atop a volcano which will eventually erupt – and the sudden presence of Russia in the Levant has brought the chances of the volcano closer to eruption. If the crisis between NATO and Putin intensifies, I expect everyone to take advantage of this, including both the IDF and the Axis of Resistance.
I thought that the depiction of the violin bow and the knife was great.
Calm
Off-topic recommended article:
“Donald Trump’s speech to Republican Jews was filled with anti-Semitic stereotypes”
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/3/9843670/donald-trump-anti-semitic
Interesting cultural and social dynamics in play.
More on Trump:
“Trump to GOP Jews: You’re not going to support me because I don’t want your money”
http://www.jta.org/2015/12/03/news-opinion/politics/trump-to-gop-jews-youre-not-going-to-support-me
“Trump Booed By Jewish Republicans For Answer On Jerusalem”
http://freebeacon.com/issues/trump-booed-by-jewish-republicans-for-answer-on-jerusalem/
One can safely predict now that the neocons, neolibs and the Israel lobby will be going after Trump with full force — despite his lavish praise for Israel in the past, his familial Jewish connections and his full-bore Islamophobia.
Marco Rubio is their guy — absolutely obedient, totally controllable.
Interesting. It’s hard to tell if Trump’s hip-level view of everything is on balance a good thing or a bad thing. Would he create more problems than he would solve? He’s certainly realigning political forces.
Hubris! The genocidal megalomaniacs who imagine they’re the master race thought they could kill all the goyim, and without suffering any consequences. Turns out they’re wrong on both counts. Doomed!